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Super Bowl XLVI Prediction

For the past two weeks we’ve had to endure analysis about everything from Rob Gronkowski’s ankle to Tom Brady’s haircuts. Enough of the crap – Here’s the straight facts on what will actually affect the Super Bowl tomorrow:

What the Patriots need to do to win:
– Run the ball more to set up the play-action pass. If BenJarvus Green-Ellis doesn’t show up (or they don’t use him), the Patriots will have the Giants front four in the backfield all day long. Passes in the flat the “The Law Firm” could be effective in slowing down the pass rush as well.

– Make Giants offense one-dimensional. Patriots DT Vince Wilfork needs to clog up the line like he has in the other playoff games. If the Patriots D-Line can stop Bradshaw and Jacobs from running wild, it will significantly help their chances.

– Get Gronkowski involved. Guaranteed that Gronk will be hurting for this game but the Patriots need to make the Giants fear him. He’s a match-up nightmare and he’s been a weapon for Brady all year. Somehow, he needs to make an impact.

What the Giants need to do to win:
– Get to Brady without a blitz. If they are to win, the Giants will have to pressure Brady without blitzes. If they can get him out of the pocket, Brady will get uncomfortable and make mistakes. Interceptions were how the Giants won in their last meeting – they’ll need them again.

– No free releases off the line for receivers. While the Patriots receivers are still within five yards from the line of scrimmage, the Giants secondary needs to rough them up – especially Wes Welker. If not, Brady will nickel and dime his way down the field, even if the Giants get to him quickly.

– Throw deep to your weapons. The Patriots were one of the worst teams during the regular season on pass defense. They’ve been much better in the playoffs but Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco aren’t exactly as passing proficient as Manning. The Patriots will have problems containing Cruz, Manningham and Nicks – Use them.

Final thoughts:
Just like the last few years, this Super Bowl should be fantastic and go down to the wire. If it doesn’t, at least the ads will be good.

Winner: Giants, 31-27

Agree or disagree? Let me know your winner and thoughts in the comments.

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State of NFL defense and other quick hits

NFL defense is dead.

Quarterbacks Drew Brees and Tom Brady both broke Dan Marino’s 27-year record in the past two weeks and neither one of them made it look very hard; Matthew Stafford was only off the 1984 mark by 46 yards (Think he’s in the same breath as Marino?). Beside those three QBs, three others surpassed the 4,600 passing mark this season. Aaron Rodgers back-up Matt Flynn almost did that in one game against the Detroit Lions with 480 yards and 6 TDs, another playoff team.

Another way to get the zeitgeist is to look at the playoff teams. The top seeds in the AFC and NFC in the Patriots and Packers. Either known for stingy defense? Not exactly.

Chicks dig the long ball (both home runs and a 60-yard bomb downfield). The NFL has created an era of spread offense because that’s what the fans want to see. Gone are the days of the Monsters of the Midway, Steel Curtain, Orange Crush or Purple People Eaters. Yes, some teams still have “good” defenses, but none are dominant. They have been watered down by penalties. No hitting the quarterback high or low, no “illegal” contact after five yards, a much higher incidence of pass interference and the list goes on.

Does the saying “Defense wins championships” still hold true? I guess we’ll see.

The Guarantee

Before the 2011 season, Jets head coach Rex Ryan publicly guaranteed the Jets would be in the Super Bowl. They were in the AFC Championship the past two years so that wasn’t too much of a stretch. However, tell the entire world you’re going to be there, you better make it or you look like an ass at the end of the season. I know he won’t change I’m not suggesting he does because I love Ryan’s soudbites, but next year just tell your team that you have confidence in them privately. That is, if he does actually have confidence in them next year. Man, the Jets suck.

Colts get Luck-y, or not?
It what seemed inevitable the entire season, until the past couple weeks when the Colts actually won, Indianapolis lost the the Jags to get the first overall pick in the 2012 Draft. It will be interesting to see what they plan to do: Stick with Manning and trade the pick, Trade Manning and have Luck be the QB of the future, Let Luck mature behind Manning on the bench or draft someone other than Luck (RGIII anyone?). I have no doubt this topic will come up again later in the offseason.

Let me know your thoughts about any of these topics in the comments:

The REAL reason Tim Tebow keeps winning

I’ve finally figured it out.

Want to know the real reason Tim Tebow wins? It’s not skill, luck, tiger blood or even divine intervention. The people Timmy thanks for his improbable winning this year when he’s “Tebowing” is the proud employees of Buffalo Wild Wings. Witness below:

Just think about the latest win against the Chicago Bears. How else could you explain Marion Barber “tripping” out of bounds or the ball slipping out of his hands when the Bears were in easy field goal range for Robbie Gould?

This week the Broncos will face NFL royalty when they play Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. In order to win, Tebow will have to exploit the Patriots deplorable pass defense. However, if the Redskins could keep with the Patriots, so could Tebow and the Broncos.

If it’s close in the 4th quarter, watch out for those sprinklers or some other Buffalo Wild Wing phenomenon to work in the Broncos’ favor.

It could happen, just sayin’.